Should I Buy Gold Before Diwali Muhurat Trading 2025 or Wait?

Monday, Oct 20, 2025

The investors in India have the same golden dilemma every year, as diyas glare and trading screens flicker as Diwali Muhurat Trading takes place -

Should I purchase gold prior to Diwali or should I wait until prices calm down?

That question is even more poignant in 2025.

Gold has surged over 47 percent since 2023, hitting an all-time high of ₹1,18,000 per 10 grams on MCX. On the one hand, the surge has excited first movers but on the other hand, it has aroused trepidation among retail investors.

Well, it is not all about gold, but timing, psychology, and portfolio discipline at Green Portfolio. You have to make up your mind whether you will purchase gold this Deepavali trading season, but where is the glitter-and the answer is yes, the glitter-and whether the rally has legs in the Samvat 2082.

Why does everybody believe gold is expensive in Diwali 2025?

Due to record high prices-and the human mind is afraid to buy on peaks.

The amazing 47% jump by gold in the recent time starting in 2023 has pushed it to over ₹1, 18,000 in MCX. The bubble and profit-booking zone words are forced into the news cycle. Such noise breeds reluctance particularly when investors recall lower levels only a year ago.

What’s causing the “overpriced” perception?

Profit-booking sentiment: Many traders who bought gold earlier are locking in profits, creating a short-term supply spike.
Psychological resistance: Round numbers like ₹1, 18,000 trigger subconscious caution-“too high to buy.”
Media narrative: Headlines about “record prices” overshadow discussions on fundamentals.
Retail hesitation: The average investor would rather wait for a dip than risk being wrong at the top.

But here’s the truth: price alone doesn’t define value.
Gold is not expensive because it’s ₹1, 18,000, it’s priced that way because global investors value its safety in uncertain times.

When every other asset class-equities, currencies, crypto-is swaying in volatility, gold is the calm center.

What is contrarian investing and why does it work?

Because wealth is created when you go where the crowd refuses to look.

Contrarian investing is about thinking differently-buying when others panic and selling when others celebrate. As Warren Buffett famously said:

“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

When retail investors shy away, value often hides beneath that fear.

Why contrarian investing works:

Markets overreact. Short-term sentiment exaggerates moves up or down.
Emotions cloud judgment. Investors chase comfort, not opportunity.
Patience compounds rewards. Contrarians wait for the narrative to turn.

Real-world examples:

Coca-Cola, 1980s: Buffett invested heavily when analysts declared soft drinks “old business.” The rest is history.
Indian equities, 2008: When markets crashed, contrarians who bought quality stocks doubled wealth within three years.
Gold, 2020: Prices near ₹45,000 looked “boring.” Those who accumulated then are smiling at ₹1, 18,000 today.

So, if everyone around you says “Don’t buy gold this Diwali,” that’s often your cue to take a deeper, contrarian look.

What are central banks doing with gold right now?

They’re not hesitating-they’re buying more gold than ever before.

While retail investors debate whether gold is too costly, central banks are quietly accumulating. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks bought 1,200+ tonnes in 2025, marking one of the strongest buying streaks in decades.

Why are central banks buying gold?

De-dollarization: With rising geopolitical divides, countries are reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar.
Reserve diversification: Gold provides insurance against currency volatility.
Inflation hedge: It protects national reserves when global inflation erodes fiat currencies.
Geopolitical insurance: Amid wars, sanctions, and trade disruptions, gold remains the only universal asset.

What factors could push gold prices higher by Diwali?

Gold’s rally isn’t just sentiment-it’s being supported by strong fundamentals that could continue through Diwali 2025 and into Samvat 2082.

1. Expected Fed rate cuts

Markets anticipate the U.S. Federal Reserve to start easing interest rates by late 2025. Lower rates make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive, pushing prices higher.

2. Rupee depreciation

A weaker rupee increases local gold prices. With India’s trade deficit widening, the rupee could slip toward ₹86–₹87 per USD, adding domestic price pressure.

3. Geopolitical tensions

Global conflicts-from the Middle East to Eastern Europe-keep safe-haven demand alive.

4. Festive demand in India

Between Navratri and Diwali, gold demand in India surges 25–30%. Jewelers and ETFs alike see inflows spike.

5. Analyst projections

Leading brokerages forecast gold to reach ₹1, 20,000 – ₹1, 22,000 per 10 grams by Diwali, assuming Fed action and seasonal buying continue.

Factor	Likely Impact	Timeframe
Fed rate cuts	Bullish for gold	Q4 2025
Rupee weakness	Boosts MCX prices	Aug–Oct 2025
Festive demand	Short-term rise	Oct 2025
Central bank buying	Sustained floor	2025–2026

Is there a smarter way to own gold than timing the peak?

Yes-through structured exposure, not emotional buying.

Rather than rushing to purchase physical gold before Diwali Muhurat Trading, investors can use Gold ETFs, Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs), or Gold Mutual Funds to capture upside efficiently.

Gold ETF vs Physical Gold: The Smarter Choice

Feature	Gold ETF	Physical Gold
Purity	99.5% guaranteed	Can vary
Liquidity	High (exchange-traded)	Moderate
Storage Risk	None	High
Additional Costs	Minimal	Making charges, GST
Taxation	Long-term capital gains after 3 years	Less favorable
Ease of Sale	Instant	Time-consuming

Pro Tip:
Start a Gold SIP - small, regular investments that average out volatility. This removes the stress of timing the peak.

How much gold should you own?

A 10% allocation to gold in your portfolio is generally optimal.

Here’s why:

Gold often rises when equities fall, offering balance.
It provides liquidity during crises.
It’s a hedge against inflation and currency risk.

What does the Samvat 2082 portfolio approach offer?

At Green Portfolio, we believe Diwali Muhurat Trading isn’t about chasing a single asset-it’s about building a resilient, multi-asset portfolio for Samvat 2082 and beyond.

Our “Samvat 2082 Balanced Framework”:

10% Gold – The Hedge Layer
Acts as a safety net during inflation and volatility.
60% Equities – The Growth Engine
Focused on high-quality Diwali stocks-financials, energy, manufacturing, and digital leaders.
20% Debt – The Stability Base
Ensures predictable returns even in uncertain times.
10% Alternatives – The Innovation Edge
International ETFs, real estate, or thematic smallcases to diversify further.

Asset Class	Allocation	Purpose
Gold	10%	Inflation hedge
Equities	60%	Long-term growth
Debt	20%	Stability & income
Alternatives	10%	Diversification

Should you buy gold before Diwali Muhurat Trading 2025-or wait?

Let’s simplify it:

Buy Now If:

You have less than 10% gold exposure in your portfolio.
You believe in long-term fundamentals (rate cuts, institutional buying).
You plan to hold for 3–5 years, not 3–5 weeks.

Wait If:

You’re already overexposed (15%+) to gold.
You plan to buy physical jewelry, not investment-grade gold.
You’re looking only for short-term speculative gains.

At Green Portfolio, our view is clear:

“Buy gold not for this Diwali’s sparkle, but for your portfolio’s shine across Samvats.”

Why Diwali Muhurat Trading 2025 matters for long-term investors

Each Diwali Muhurat symbolizes new beginnings, and history shows that investments made during this auspicious hour often perform well over the following year.

A look at past performance:

Samvat Year	Nifty Return (%)	Gold Return (%)
2074	+9.7	+11.3
2076	+11.5	+23.0
2078	+1.4	+16.8
2080	+17.3	+18.5

That’s why adding it to your Diwali Muhurat Trading portfolio, even at current levels-can enhance long-term resilience.

Why Green Portfolio believes in gold-strategically, not emotionally

At Green Portfolio, our Portfolio Management Service (PMS) follows a data-driven, multi-asset framework-not impulsive trades.

We see gold as:

A store of stability, not speculation.
A contrarian opportunity when the crowd hesitates.
A strategic anchor during macroeconomic shifts.

Our approach blends:

Macro insights (interest rates, inflation, currency trends)
Active rebalancing between equity and gold
Long-term compounding, not short-term timing

Green Portfolio’s Muhurat Takeaway:

Question	Answer
Should I buy gold before Diwali?	Yes, if it fits your 10% portfolio allocation.
Should I wait for a dip?	Only if you already hold enough gold.
What’s the best way to buy?	Through ETFs or Sovereign Gold Bonds.
Is timing important?	Not as much as diversification.
What’s the long-term goal?	Stability, protection, and steady wealth creation.

So as Samvat 2082 begins, light your investment diya with wisdom-
Choose balance over impulse, allocation over speculation, and resilience over reaction.

Because prosperity doesn’t come from chasing trends.
It comes from owning the right assets, at the right proportion, for the right reasons.